Here‘s a very interesting article about J.P. Morgan’s analysis of bankruptcy risk of various carriers. In a way I think they’re almost spot on in terms of which carriers are the most stable right now, but at the same time I think there’s an important distinction to be made here for anyone reading this article, namely that of Chapter 11 (which this article specifically refers to) vs. Chapter 7 or anything else more drastic. When it comes down to it I’m betting the government won’t let a major airline with 60,000 employees just go *poof*, and if they really had to would bail them out.
Anyway, without much more rambling, here is their ranking from least risk to highest risk:
Southwest Airlines, Alaska Airlines, Delta Air Lines, AirTran, Continental, JetBlue, American Airlines, United Airlines, Northwest Airlines, and US Airways.
The one airline which I question somewhat is AirTran. Without knowing too much about their financial situation, they just don’t strike me as being quite as financially secure as the article suggests. I’m probably wrong, but that was my gut instinct.
Anyway, after a short night last night and a redeye the night before, I’m off to bed. I’ll try to get working on my Hawaii trip report tomorrow, so stay tuned for that.